Recently, the energy storage market has shown explosive growth. Its core driving force comes from the formation of a clear profit model and the surge in overseas demand, which is sending nervous signals to the upstream raw material links.

       储能市场情绪高涨，主要得益于三方面因素：

       一是电力市场化改革持续推进。 As the construction of the electricity spot market accelerates, the peak-to-valley electricity price gap gradually widens. Energy storage has achieved considerable economic benefits through the "low storage, high generation" arbitrage model, and the commercialization path has become increasingly clear.

Second, policy incentives are gradually implemented. Provinces represented by Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have successively introduced capacity price subsidy policies, providing stable and predictable additional income for energy storage projects. According to industry estimates, the internal rate of return of energy storage projects in some areas can reach 15% to 21%, significantly improving investment attractiveness.

Third, overseas market demand continues to drive. The expected "rush to import" phenomenon in the United States due to its tariff policy, coupled with the acceleration of global energy transformation, has created strong overseas demand and further boosted market sentiment.

The unexpected explosion of downstream demand has been rapidly transmitted to the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain. At present, everything from battery cells, copper foil/aluminum foil, structural parts to electrolyte and other aspects are generally in full production. In order to lock in production capacity for next year in advance, many battery companies have begun to sign long-term agreements with upstream suppliers, which indicates that demand for raw materials is about to rise significantly.

According to industry research data, for every 100GWh energy storage battery produced, approximately 160,000 tons of aluminum, 65,000-70,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 60,000 tons of copper are consumed. Based on this calculation: if the energy storage market maintains a neutral growth rate of 50% next year, the demand for related raw materials will increase significantly; if the growth rate reaches a more optimistic 80%, some raw materials may directly face supply shortages.

Among the many raw materials, the tight supply situation of electrolytic aluminum is the most clear. The core contradiction lies in the production capacity ceiling and power constraints:

· Domestic production capacity has reached the upper limit, and the electrolytic aluminum industry implements strict total production capacity control, and no new additions are possible;

· Overseas expansion has also been hindered. Although companies have turned to resource-rich areas such as Indonesia to build factories, they face a fundamental constraint - lack of electricity. Since China has promised not to build new thermal power projects overseas, companies need to rely on local partners to solve power supply problems. As a result, the construction cycle of supporting power stations lasts 18-24 months, which is far slower than the construction progress of electrolytic aluminum production lines. Therefore, a large amount of planned production capacity is difficult to convert into actual production, and the production capacity that can be released in 2026-2027 is expected to be very limited.

On the whole, the energy storage market has entered a high-growth stage driven by real profit models and sustained demand. Even if subsequent policy subsidy levels vary among provinces, the project can still maintain a baseline income of approximately 10%, supporting the sustainable development of the industry. This strong demand is gradually being transmitted upstream. It is expected that electrolytic aluminum will enter a deterministic shortage next year, and the supply and demand pattern of copper will also become tense. The balance of lithium carbonate is highly dependent on whether the energy storage market growth rate exceeds the key threshold of 50%.

Against this background, the production capacity layout and raw material supply guarantee of the entire industrial chain have become the focus of the industry. It is worth mentioning that the rapid development of the energy storage market is also linked to key battery material industries including lithium iron phosphate, and the demand for related material preparation equipment (such as vertical sand mills, etc.) has also increased. For companies planning to deploy or expand relevant production capacity, it is particularly critical to seize the current opportunity and ensure the stability of the supply chain.